On Friday September 19th 2025 three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets entered Estonian airspace, circling for 12 minutes before being forced back by Italian fighters. This brazen violation targeting Estonia, a small country west of Russia, is the latest in a series of incursions this month. Russian aircrafts have been frequently entering the airscape of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, a collective defense organization between the US and many European countries. International law prohibits unwarranted violation of a nation’s airspace and is an escalation of tension between Europe and Russia.

On September 9th, around 19 Russian drones entered Polish airspace, with many being shot down by NATO aircraft. Then, on September 13, another drone violated Romania’s airspace; Russia and Belarus conducted pre-planned joint military exercises along the Polish border starting on Friday, September 12th and concluding on Tuesday, September 16th, around the time of the Polish drone incident. This pattern of recurring Russian threats towards the west has prompted a response from NATO.

After Poland dealt with the drones, it activated NATO’s Article 4, a provision that allows countries to call for alliance-wide consultations if they believe their sovereignty has been threatened. This led to NATO announcing operation “Eastern Sentry” with Supreme Allied Commander in Europe General Alexus Grynkewich stating, “Eastern Sentry and this new approach will deliver even more focused and flexible deterrence and defense where and when needed to protect our people and deter against further reckless and dangerous acts like what occurred earlier this week.”

The full extent of the operation is unknown but several countries have already committed resources to the defense, with Denmark, France, and Germany all deploying fighter planes soon after the operation’s announcement. More recently the United Kingdom announced that it is also contributing to the operation by having the Royal Air Force fly missions over Poland.

So far the strong NATO response has failed to deter Russia, who continued with the most recent provocation against Estonia. Russian aircraft have already violated Estonian airspace 4 times this year, but Estonian foreign minister Margus Tsahkna declared this incident to be different: “Today’s incursion, involving three fighter aircraft entering our airspace, is unprecedentedly brazen.” Indeed, the fighters remained in Estonian airspace much longer than in past incidents, reportedly had their transponders off, and refused to interact with Estonian air traffic control. Russian fighters regularly fly across the Baltic Sea near Estonia but the duration of the violation, especially following on the heels of the other recent incidents, makes it likely this move was deliberate. 

Looking for the same support, Estonia has followed in Poland’s footsteps by requesting Article 4 consultations. NATO has condemned the incident and it is possible that consultations with Estonia could lead to an expansion of Operation Eastern Sentry that focuses more resources on the Baltic. Even with strong backing by NATO and the European Union, whose foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas called the situation “an extremely dangerous provocation,” there is still great uncertainty about Washington’s response. America has historically been NATO’s stronger backer and the core of the alliance while the US under Biden had cooperated closely with Europe to support Ukraine. However the new Trump administration has damaged the unity of the alliance with the president more interested in berating alliance members than standing up to Russia.

Before being briefed on the Estonian matter, President Trump told the press: “I don’t love it. I don’t like when that happens. Could be big trouble. But I’ll let you know later.” This fairly non-committal stance is typical of Trump’s fickle policy towards Russia. Earlier this week on a state visit to the UK, Trump said that Putin had “really let me down.” However, after the airspace violation in Poland, he refused to take Poland’s side and instead suggested that the drone attack may have been a “mistake,” in line with the highly dubious rhetoric presented by the Kremlin which has issued in contradictory statements that the drones were misguided by Ukrainian jammers but also didn’t have the range to fly that far.

The situation is still tense- any NATO response is going to draw the ire of Russia and is unlikely to deter Putin (as there haven’t been any significant consequences for his troublemaking thus far). Even if NATO can’t prevent these incidents from occurring, it is vital the alliance does everything it can to shut down future incursions as soon as they happen. Russia is testing for weakness amidst weakening American support for Europe as President Trump is uninterested in aiding either NATO or Ukraine. Without reliable backing from across the pond, NATO’s European allies must stand together more than ever and be prepared in case Putin comes knocking again.